The consensus of opinion within the global industry is that it may be possible for shipping to reduce CO2 emitted per tonne of cargo transported one kilometre (tonne/km) by perhaps 15%-20% between 2007 and 2020, through a combination of technological and operational developments, as well as the introduction of new and bigger ships, designed to the new International Maritime Organization (IMO) Energy Efficiency Design Index.  This is a significant challenge given that there have already been substantial improvements in the efficiency of ships’ engines (see graph).  

In the longer term, depending on technological developments which at the moment cannot be fully anticipated, the industry believes it should be possible to deliver even more dramatic emission reductions (although for the foreseeable future shipping will remain dependent on fossil fuels). 

Improvements to energy efficiency of ship engines oil consumption (gram/kW/hour)

Source: Danish Shipowners' Association

Although the shipping industry is already very energy efficient, additional improvements to hull, engine and propeller design are expected to produce further reductions in fuel consumption.  There may also be possibilities for the better utilisation of waste heat.  

The increasing size of many ships is also expected to improve fuel efficiency.  In addition, operational measures (e.g. better speed management throughout the course of a voyage) are also expected to reduce fuel consumption and are addressed in detail by the new Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan that has been developed at IMO, with assistance from the industry.    

Shipping companies have a very strong incentive to reduce their fuel consumption and thus reduce their CO2 emissions: bunker costs represent an increasingly significant proportion of ships’ operational expenses, having increased by about 300% in the last 5 years.   

There is every expectation that marine bunker prices will return to the peak levels of 2008.  Furthermore, the cost of ships’ fuel is expected to increase by a further 50% as a result of the increased use of (low sulphur) distillate fuel that will follow the implementation of the new IMO rules (MARPOL Annex VI) that will apply globally in Emission Control Areas by 2015.

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